Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 1 to 2 cents higher since being 2 1/2 to 3 3/4 cents lower on Thursday. There was general commodity selling Thursday ahead of today’s raft of USDA reports and in the face of an extended dollar rally. The weekly Export Sales report showed 503,117 MT in old crop corn sales in the week ending 12/27. That was down from the week prior as expected but still well above the same week last year. Analysts surveyed by Reuters are expecting US 18/19 carryout to be trimmed by 73 mbu to 1.708 bbu in today’s WASDE report. They also estimate that Argentine production will be slightly higher at 43.09 MMT and Brazil will drop 1.09 to 93.41 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher ahead of the USDA reports this morning. They were down 6 1/4 to 8 1/2 cents per bushel by the close on long liquidation. Preliminary open interest dropped 8,768 contracts for the session. Meal futures were down $3.50/ton in the nearby contracts, with soy oil 9 points lower. The weekly Export Sales report indicated 1.051 MMT of soybeans were sold in the week of December 27. That was down 56% from the preceding non-holiday week as you would expect, but 121.4% larger than the same week last year. China purchased 808,000 MT in that week. The average trade estimate for 18/19 US soybean ending stocks in today’s WASDE release is 926 mbu, which is down 29 mbu from the December report. Analysts estimate Brazil’s soybean crop at 116.99 MMT on average, a drop of 5 MMT from the December report if realized.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents higher this morning in the winter wheat, and UNCH to 1 3/4 cent higher in Minneapolis spring wheat. They ended the Thursday session with most contracts 7 to 13 cents lower, with the winter wheat contracts the weakest on net new selling. Preliminary open interest rose 4,152 contracts. All wheat export sales in the week that ended on December 27 were reported at 593,002 MT this morning. That was 12.7% above the week prior and more than 4 times larger than the same Christmas week in 2017. The trade was more concerned about the rising US dollar and Russian hints of more active export sales in March. Japan’s weekly MOA tender showed a total of 59,492 MT of US wheat purchased. Today’s WASDE report is expected to show another increase to the US wheat carryout estimate at 989 mbu or 15 mbu larger than the Dec update. Egypt’s GASC took advantage of the sell off yesterday to tender for wheat for L/H March delivery. Results are expected later today.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw mixed trade on Thursday with front months steady to 32.5 cents lower and back months higher. There were 35 delivery notices against Feb on Thursday night, at Tulia and Dalhart. Feeder cattle futures were steady to 50 cents higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 28 cents on February 6 at $141.81. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 86 cents at $216.71 with Select 74 cents lower at $211.53. Week to date USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter is 470,000 head through Thursday. That is up 7,000 head from last week and the same week last year. Cash bids have been light this week with a few starting out at $121 in the South and $196 in the North. We saw limited sales of $124+ on yesterday’s FCE auction.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were mostly 45 cents to $1.30 in the red on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 20 cents from the previous day @ $57.16 on February 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 50 cents on Thursday afternoon at an average weighted price of $65.11. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 23 cents in the PM report, with a weighted average of $49.52 USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for the week at 1.885 million head through Thursday. That is well above the previous week and 41,000 head larger than the same week last year. Delayed USDA export sales reporting for the week ending 12/27 showed China buying 14,500 MT net.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 8 lower to 6 higher this morning ahead of the WASDE supply/demand estimates scheduled for 11 AM CST release. They closed Thursday with most contracts 13 to 94 points lower. A stronger dollar provided some pressure on Thursday but saw a little profit taking overnight. Upland cotton sales in the week that ended on 12/27 totaled 228,202 RB for 18/19 and 32,208 RB for 19/20. A total of 28,434 RB in net sales were reported to China in the export sales report. The Cotlook A Index was up 40 points on February 6 to 82.65 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 64.61 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 46 points from the previous week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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Phone: 402-697-3623
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