Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 to 1 3/4 lower this morning. They closed Wednesday with losses of 1 to 2 cents, on profit taking ahead of today’s USDA reports. The USDA Crop Progress report indicated that all of the 18 reported states were above their normal harvest pace as of Sunday, with IA only moving 4% on the week to 15%. Condition ratings in IA dropped 11 points, with NE down 5, IN 3 points lower and MN down 2. The WASDE report this morning is expected by traders to show world corn carryout for 18/19 at 159.2 MMT, up 2.17 MMT from September. The trade average guess expects USDA to hike the average US yield estimate by 0.5 bushels per acre this morning to a new all time record high. The 44-year average revision for October would be +0.7 bpa, but there are also record yield years like 2016 where the number went lower in this report.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are currently 4 cents lower after posting losses of 10 to 11 cents in most contracts on Wednesday. Nearby soy meal was down $1.50/ton and soy oil 32 points lower. NASS showed most of the harvest progress was made in the ECB last week, as IA, MN, and the Dakotas are now lagging their average pace. Quality problems in the WCB are real, but mostly a basis issue. Lower test weights would reduce official yields, which are converted to 56# bushels. State by state condition ratings show IA dropping 11 points and NE down 5, with IL up 8 and MN 1 point higher. Analysts expect 18/19 world soybean stocks to be reported at 109.9 MMT by the USDA on Thursday, 1.64 MMT larger than the September total. An auction of Chinese state reserves saw 101,057 MT of soybeans sold on Wednesday, accounting for 100% of what was offered. On average, the trade is looking for a 0.5 bpa increase in the national average yield from USDA today.



Wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher this morning, with Minneapolis spring wheat higher on spread trading. They were down 1 to 3 cents in the MPLS contracts, with CBT and KC 3 to 5 cents in the red. Tuesday’s Crop Progress report indicated planting progress in KS was 58% complete (49% avg), with OK 60% and TX 54% planted, both ahead of normal. That may change with this week’s weather pattern. The weekly Export Sales report will be delayed until Friday morning due to Monday’s holiday. The average trade estimate for world wheat 18/19 ending stocks is 261.2 MMT, which would be close to last month’s projection. USDA is expected to hike their forecast for US ending stocks, due to the September 28 data



Live cattle futures ended Wednesday with most contracts 45 to 65 cents lower, as nearby Oct was down $1. Feeder cattle futures were down $1.05 to $1.70 on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 7 cents on October 9 at $158.38. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 74 cents to $202.11, while Select boxes were 95 cents lower at $191.77. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 348,000 head through Wednesday. That was down 10,000 head from last week and 4,000 from the same week in 2017. The weekly FCE online auction saw 0 sales on the 1,246 head offered, with asks @ $111-113 and no bids. A few cash sales were reported in IA and NE at $174, down about $1 from last week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures were 25 cents to $1.10 in the red on Wednesday. October needs to stick close to the cash index due to expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 3 cents on October 8 to $69.33. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 14 cents higher on Wednesday afternoon at $79.20. The loin and butt were the only primal cuts lower. The national base hog carcass value was 71 cents lower on Wednesday afternoon at $62.58. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1.381 million head WTD through Wednesday. That is down 22,000 head from last week and 4,000 head below the same week last year.

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.



Cotton futures are 18 to 22 points lower this morning in the run up to the USDA reports. They were steady to 21 points lower on Tuesday as the market waited on information about hurricane damage. The weekly Crop Progress report showed that Georgia, in the path of Hurricane Michael, had 88% of the bolls open, with only 12% harvested as of Sunday. Texas has harvested 28% of their crop, with the average at 2%. Ratings in TX were steady, with GA down 5 points. Cotlook A index was up 145 points from the previous day at 86.85 cents/lb on October 9. The USDA weekly AWP is currently at 67.87 cents/lb and will be updated on Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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