Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing fractional to 2 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production during the week that ended on September 6 at 1.023 million barrels per day. That was up 10,000 bpd from the week prior and 3,000 larger than the first week of the 18/19 MY. Ethanol stocks were down a sharp 1.302 million barrels to 22.499 million barrels, with all regions but the West Coast reducing stocks. USDA is expected to show new crop corn sales of 500,000-900,000 MT during the week of 9/6 in the weekly Export Sales report tomorrow. Ahead of Thursday’s WASDE update, analysts are expecting USDA to increase old crop corn world carryout by 0.75 MMT to 329.33 MMT, mainly on a jump to the US number. New crop carryout seen at 303.18 MMT, down 4.52 from August.

SEP 19 Corn is at $3.46 1/2, down 2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.60 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

MAR 20 Corn is at $3.72 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.81 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are down 5 to 6 1/4 cents at midday. Soybean meal is $4/ton lower, with soy oil 30 points higher. The trade range of estimates for the weekly Export Sales report is net reductions of 50,000 to sales of 50,000 MT for old crop sales in the last couple days of the MY. New crop is seen in a range of 0.6 to 1.1 MMT for the week that ended on September 5. The WAOB is expected to show a slight reduction in old crop world soybean ending stocks to 114.23 MMT on Thursday. The average estimate for new crop is 100.11 MMT, which would be down 1.63 MMT from August. China is signing an agreement permitting importation of Argentine soybean meal, again diversifying suppliers.

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.53, down 6 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.67, down 5 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $8.80 3/4, down 5 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $8.93 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybean Meal is at $288.90, down $4.00,

SEP 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.68, up $0.30

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are steady to 5 cents lower at midday, with nearby MPLS up a tick. The weekly FAS Export Sales report is expected to show 300,000-600,000 MT in all wheat export sales for 19/20. Prior to Thursday’s USDA reports, traders are estimating 19/20 world wheat stocks to rise slightly to 284.71 MMT. Old crop world stocks are seen ticking higher to 274.6 MMT. The French Farm Ministry pegs the country’s wheat protein content at 11.5%, which is down from 12% last year.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.78 1/4, down 4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.00, down 3 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.04, up 1/4 cent

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are up 90 cents to $2.45 on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are $2.075 to $3.275 higher in the front months. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 33 cents lower on September 9 at $137.44. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday morning, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $22.75. Choice boxes were down a sharp $3.43 at $221.95, with Select boxes $1.78 lower @ $199.20. The latter are down more than 5% since the Labor Day holiday. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter @ 231,000. That is down 8,000 head from the same week a year ago. Wednesday’s FCE auction showed 318 of the 636 head offered were bid at $99, with feedlots passing on both bids.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $98.600, up $2.450,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $103.675, up $2.450,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $109.900, up $1.475,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $135.975, up $2.075

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $134.325, up $3.275

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $133.675, up $2.975

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are trading $1.127 to $2.875 lower at midday. Pork was left off a Chinese list of tariff exemptions of 16 US products. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 76 cents at $62.99 on September 9. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up $1.25 on Wednesday morning at $73.16. The national average base hog value was $1.46 lower at $47.31. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 970,000 head through Tuesday, 40,000 head above the same week in 2018. We will have to have a number of weeks later this fall with 2.5-2.6 million head runs.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $59.850, down $2.875,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $60.425, down $1.350

FEB 20 Hogs are at $67.375, down $1.775

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are down 15 points in nearby Oct, with other contracts marginally higher. China has given tariff exemptions on 16 US products, though it does not include any of the main ag goods. USDA will give us an updated look at the US and World balance sheets on Thursday. The Cotlook A Index was down 45 points on September 10 at 70.60 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 51.57, below loan rate and will be updated on Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 59.35, down 15 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 59.39, up 5 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 60.04, up 5 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 60.7, up 9 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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