Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 2 to 3 cents higher at midday, as the dead cat is trying to bounce. The high yields that caused the surprise yesterday were mostly in states NOT included in the weekly 18 state progress and condition reports. On Thursday afternoon, the FSA released data that shows 950,344 acres of corn was reported as prevented plantings as of August 1. That is a five year low and down 8.55% compared to 1.039 million acres in August 2016. In Thursday’s WASDE report, exports for new crop were lowered 25 mbu to 1.85 bbu, with the feed and residual number also being lowered to 5.45 bbu. South Korea tendered for 70,000 MT of corn, with results of the tender coming as late as Monday.

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.60 1/4, up 3 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.74, up 3 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.85 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents

May 18 Corn is at $3.91 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents



Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents in the green on Friday, on a little profit taking before the weekend. The expiring Aug soy meal is up $3.30/ton, with nearby bean oil 19 points lower. The USDA announced a private soybean export sale of 120,000 MT to China, with 60,000 for both 16/17 and 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system. The FSA showed 436,610 acres were reported for prevent plant as of August 1, up 84.18% from last year’s 237,057 acres. The annual US corn and soybean road tour will start on August 21 and run until August 24. New crop exports were updated to 2.225 bbu, up 75 mbu, with crushing down 10 mbu. The USDA also dropped their average farm price projection 10 cents to $9.30 with a range of $8.45-$10.15.

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.34 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.37, up 3 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.44 1/4, up 4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.53, up 4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal is at $297.30, up $3.10

Aug 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.62, down $0.12



Wheat futures are showing sharp losses at midday, as MPLS is the weakest, down 22 1/4 cents in nearby Sep. Taiwan is seeking 98,850 MT of US wheat, with the tender to close on August 16. Wheat prevented plant acres as of August 1, according to FSA data were down 65.52% from last year at 613,884 acres. Total spring wheat prevent plant acres for the 6 states were 237% larger than in August 2016 at 196,790 acres, but in a drought year the main issue is abandonment. The USDA lowered 17/18 US wheat yield 0.6 bpa to 45.6 bpa. Russia’s IKAR analyst group updated their Russian wheat production number to 77-80 MMT from 74-77MMT, a day after the USDA increased their estimate to 77.5 MMT. In addition, SovEcon increased their estimate 5 MMT to 77.9 MMT.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.36 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.38, down 10 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.81, down 22 1/4 cents



Live cattle futures are currently 77.5 to 90 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Friday. Feeder cattle futures are also 27.5 to 62.5 cents in the green. The CME feeder cattle index was $1.55 lower than the previous day at $147.93. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the Friday morning report, with choice down 86 cents at $199.77 and select boxes 16 cents higher at $196.35. The CH/SE spreads has now narrowed to $3.42. Week to date FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 472,000 head through Thursday, 7,000 more than last week and 23,000 larger than the same week last year. The USDA reported a few cash sales of $116 on Thursday.

Aug 17 Cattle are at $109.750, up $0.900,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $107.450, up $0.850,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $109.375, up $0.775,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $141.450, up $0.275

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $141.750, up $0.450

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $141.100, up $0.625



Lean hog futures are mostly 12.5 to 30 cents higher in the front months at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 8/9 was 12 cents lower than the previous day at $85.50. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 39 cents higher in the Friday morning report, with a weighted average of $95.56. The loin was the only primal cut reported lower. The national base hog carcass was down 54 cents to $77.98 in the a.m. report. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,713,000 head through Thursday, 39,000 head fewer than the previous week and down 28,000 from the same week in 2016.

Aug 17 Hogs are at $84.600, up $0.150,

Oct 17 Hogs are at $68.275, up $0.300

Dec 17 Hogs are at $62.825, up $0.125



Cotton futures are 59 to 105 points higher on Friday, rebounding after yesterday’s sharp losses. Projected US production jumped to 20.55 million bales as USDA increased estimated yield from 816 to 892 pounds per acre. New crop exports were raised 700,000 bales to 14.2 million bales, but that was not enough to offset larger production. The USDA cotton AWP is now 62.46 cents/lb through next Thursday, 95 points lower than the previous week. The Cotlook A index for August 10th was unchanged from the previous day at 81.35 cents/lb. The FSA reported 17,882 acres of prevented plant as of August 1, compared to 61,340 acres reported for that same date in 2016.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 69.85, up 59 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.79, up 68 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 68.55, up 72 points

May 18 Cotton is at 69.320, up 105 points






Market Commentary provided by:

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