Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are 4 to 4 1/2 cents lower in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. The USDA announced a private export sale of 133,096 MT of 17/18 corn to unknown destinations this morning but it didn’t move the meter. The Monday afternoon NASS Crop Progress report showed most states lagging their harvest averages, with only TN and NC ahead of their normal progress. The Monday edition of the CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds in corn futures and options adding 2,861 to their net short position of 205,624 contracts on 11/7. Around 60,000 MT of corn thought to be likely US origin was purchased by South Korea’s KOCOPIA on Tuesday.

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.37 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.50 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.59 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.67 1/4, down 4 cents

Soybean futures are trading 4 to 5 cents in the red at midday, ahead of Nov’s expiration today. December meal is down $1/ton, with nearby bean oil 20 points lower. Ahead of Wednesday’s NOPA crush report, analysts are expecting October’s crush to average 164.475 mbu among its members. That would be well above September but slightly off of the previous year. The soy oil stocks number at the end of October is seen at 1.41 billion pounds, nearly 8.29% larger than the previous month. The USDA reported most states in the Midwest now on pace with the average for soybean harvest, with states in the ECB still slightly lagging the average. Harvest is just about done. As the focus is starting to switch to South America, rain is expected in parts of Brazil this week, after a dry spell hit the country in the early fall months.

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.58 1/2, down 5 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.69 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.80 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.90 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal is at $310.30, down $1.00

Dec 17 Soybean Oil is at $34.13, down $0.20

Wheat futures are showing mixed trade on Tuesday. Nearby CBT contracts are slightly higher with back months lower and KC the other way around. MPLS is fractionally to 3 cents in the red. The US winter wheat crop was 95% planted as of Sunday, with 84% emerged. The USDA also reported conditions deteriorating 3 points on the Brugler500 index to 348, as gd/ex ratings were down 1% to 54%. The correlation between fall condition ratings and following year wheat yields is weak. Japan’s weekly MOA tender is for 125,611 MT of wheat from Australia, Canada, and the US. Of that total, 65,530 MT is sought from the US, with the tender to close on Thursday.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.27 1/4, up 3 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.27 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.31, down 2 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures are mostly 80 cents to $1.375 lower on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are down $1.15 to $2.525 at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was 62 cents higher at $160.00 on November 10. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Tuesday morning. Choice was down $1.68 at $211.13, with select boxes 23 cents higher at $196.06. USDA indicated FI cattle slaughter for Monday was 117,000 head, matching week ago and 3,000 larger than the same Monday in 2016. Managed money spec funds added another 11,576 contracts to their net long position in live cattle futures and options. That net position was at 132,032 contracts for the week that ended November 7. Some of those recent arrivals are now obviously under water. Wednesday’s online FCE auction has a total of only 969 head for sale. The FCE is not meeting the objective of more publicly negotiated sales volume with those limited offerings.

Dec 17 Cattle are at $119.425, down $1.150,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $125.025, down $1.375,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $126.175, down $0.800,

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle are at $157.550, down $1.150

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $154.450, down $2.525

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $152.500, down $2.125

Lean hog futures are posting losses of $1.60 to $2.25 in the front months at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/10 was down 47 cents to $67.00. The national base hog average was down 50 cents at $58.43 this morning. The USDA pork carcass cutout value for Tuesday morning was 4 cents higher at $81.30. Spec traders in lean hog futures and options held a net long position of 78,206 contract for the week ending Nov 7. During that week, they added another 10,314 contracts to their net long position. The daily USDA AMS hog slaughter report showed 464,000 for Monday, up 4K from the previous week and 26,000 larger than the same Monday in 2016.

Dec 17 Hogs are at $60.275, down $2.025,

Feb 18 Hogs are at $68.050, down $2.250

Apr 18 Hogs are at $72.650, down $1.600

Cotton futures are down 2 to 21 points at midday. The US dollar is currently 523 points lower, but providing little assistance to commodity prices overall. The US cotton harvest progressed another 10% over the last week and was reported at 64% complete as of Sunday, even with the average pace. Online cash sales reported by The Seam were up to 12,421 bales, as prices rose 37 points to 68.61 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index for November 13 was 55 points lower to 79.90 cents/lb. The Commitment of Traders report showed managed money lowering their net long position by 2,431 contracts. That net position stood at 44,883 contracts for the week that ended 11/7.

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.86, down 2 points,

Mar 18 Cotton is at 68.79, down 14 points

May 18 Cotton is at 69.73, down 18 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 70.210, down 21 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

First you raise it, then you market it!  Check out the full Brugler advisory service with this special Harvest 2Fer offer at


Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.